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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd